Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

Comprehensive framework for integrated action on the prevention, diagnosis, and management of anemia: An introduction.

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced in 2021 a commitment to develop a comprehensive framework for integrated action on the prevention, diagnosis, and management of anemia and to establish an Anaemia Action Alliance to support the implementation of the framework. WHO commissioned four background papers to provide reflections about the most pressing issues to be addressed for accelerating reductions in the prevalence of anemia. Here, we provide a complete vision of the framework.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios - United States, April-September 2021.

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

Modeling the long term effects of thermoregulation on human sleep.

The connection between human sleep and energy exertion has long been regarded as part of the reasoning for the need to sleep. A recent theory proposes that during REM sleep, energy utilized for thermoregulation is diverted to other relevant biological processes. We present a mathematical model of human sleep/wake regulation with thermoregulatory functions to gain quantitative insight into the effects of ambient temperature on sleep quality. Our model extends previous models by incorporating equations for the metabolic processes that control thermoregulation during sleep. We present numerical simulations that provide a quantitative answer for how humans adjust by changing the normal sleep stage progression when it is challenged with ambient temperatures away from thermoneutral. We explore the dynamics for a single night and several nights. Our results indicate that including the effects of temperature is a vital component of modeling sleep.

Trichloroethylene exposure alters dimethylated histone three lysine four in protein kinase A signaling pathway chromatin of rat sperm†.

Histone three lysine four dimethylation (H3k4me2) in sperm is conserved across species and is linked to transgenerational epigenetic inheritance. To test whether H3K4me2 is a target for transgenerational inheritance of toxicity, a daily gavage bolus exposure of trichloroethylene (TCE) (1000 mg/kg/day) was given to rats for 14 weeks, then epididymal sperm were isolated and native chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by next generation sequencing (ChIP-seq) of H3K4me2 was performed. Differential region analysis determined there were 2608 significantly differential H3K4me2 regions after TCE exposure, 477 were significantly increased and 2131 were significantly decreased. Z-score enrichment of differential regions determined there were significantly decreased H3k4me2 in the coding and regulatory regions of genes in the PKA signaling pathway. These changes account for TCE induced spermatozoal toxicity and show H3K4me2 is a target for paternal inheritance of toxicity.

Differential toxicity of water versus gavage exposure to trichloroethylene in rats.

Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a persistent environmental contaminant that causes male reproductive toxicity. We investigated whether transient increases in TCE exposure modulated male reproductive toxicity by exposing rats via daily oral to repeated gavage exposures (1000 mg/kg/day) and through drinking water (0.6% TCE) for 14 weeks. The gavage route resulted in reversible reduction of epididymis weight, and reduced body weight that persisted for up to 12-weeks after cessation of exposure. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling predicted that the gavage route results in higher Cmax and AUC exposure of TCE compared to drinking water exposure, explaining the observed differences in toxicity between dosing regimens.

Determinants of Hearing Aid Use Among Older Americans With Hearing Loss.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hearing loss (HL) is common among older adults and is associated with significant psychosocial, cognitive, and physical sequelae. Hearing aids (HA) can help, but not all individuals with HL use them. This study examines how social determinants may impact HA use. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted an explanatory sequential mixed methods study involving a secondary analysis of a nationally representative data set, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; n = 35,572). This was followed up with 1:1 qualitative interviews (n = 21) with community participants to clarify our findings. Both samples included individuals aged 55 and older with a self-reported HL, with or without HA. The main outcome measure was the proportion of participants with a self-reported HL who use HA. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Analysis of HRS data indicated that younger, nonwhite, non-Hispanic, lower income, and less-educated individuals were significantly less likely to use HA than their referent groups (all p values < .001). Area of residence (e.g., urban) were not significantly associated with HA use. Qualitative findings revealed barriers to HA included cost, stigma, vanity, and a general low priority placed on addressing HL by health care providers. Facilitators to obtaining and using HA included family/friend support, knowledge, and adequate insurance coverage for HA. IMPLICATIONS: Many socioeconomic factors hinder individuals' ability to obtain and use HA, but these obstacles appeared to be mitigated in part when insurance plans provided adequate HA coverage, or when their family/friends provided encouragement to use HA.

Medical care experiences of children with autism and their parents: A scoping review.

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and their families may benefit from the provision of additional supports in health care settings, particularly when preparing for and attending medical appointments. This review examined literature that describes experiences in medical care settings from the perspective of patients under age 18 with ASD and their caregivers. A scoping review was conducted to examine the experiences of children with ASD and their families in medical care settings. Twenty-nine studies meeting inclusion criteria were identified and reviewed. The review indicated a number of challenges (e.g., parent-reported problems in parent-provider communication and overwhelming environments) as well as factors that facilitate positive experiences (e.g., providing positive reinforcement and explaining exam steps) during medical appointments. Children with ASD and their families are faced with many challenges while receiving care in medical settings. The present review identified many challenges families face, as well as facilitators of positive experiences. Understanding the unique experiences of patients with ASD and their parents will help to improve experiences in medical care settings for children, caregivers, and health care providers.

Localization of dimethylated histone three lysine four in the Rattus norvegicus sperm genome.

We examined the precise localization of dimethylated histone three lysine four (H3K4me2) in mature rat sperm. Within nonintergenic-enriched regions, half of the DNA peaks associated with H3K4me2 retention fell in gene bodies and the other half in promoter regions. The most significant peaks near annotated DNA regions in the composite data included loci known to be associated with RNA metabolism, cell cycle regulation, and spermatogenesis. Regions associated with differential retention of H3K4me2 within gene bodies were significantly enriched for housekeeping gene and cell-cycle functionality. Proximal promoter-associated peaks were enriched for viral reproduction and cell cycle regulation genes, while Promoter1k and Promoter3k peaks were enriched for RNA metabolism functions. Further, homeobox- and kruppel-like factor motifs were among the most significantly enriched de novo and known motifs discovered within gene-associated H3K4me2 peaks. Motif analysis and native chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing (nChIP-seq) peak calling indicated an instructive role for retained paternal histones in the epigenetic regulation of early embryonic development in the rat.

Factors Affecting the Validity of Coverage Survey Reports of Receipt of Vitamin A Supplements During Child Health Days in Southwestern Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of high-dose vitamin A supplementation (VAS) coverage often relies on postevent coverage (PEC) surveys, but the validity of these methods has rarely been evaluated. OBJECTIVES: To assess reported VAS coverage and factors associated with missed coverage and to investigate the reliability of the results. METHODS: During a cross-sectional survey, 10 454 caregivers of children <27 months old were asked whether their child had received VAS in the past 6 months. During a 48-week longitudinal study of 6232 children 6 to 30 months old, caregivers were asked every 4 weeks if their child had received VAS in the past 4 weeks. RESULTS: The cross-sectional study showed that 94.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 93.8%, 94.9%) of eligible children 6 to 26 months of age reportedly received VAS in the previous 6 months, as did 85.8% (CI: 84.5%, 87.2%) of ineligible, 0 to 5 months old children. The longitudinal study showed that 81.6% of children surveyed within 4 weeks following a VAS campaign reportedly received VAS during the campaign and 13.4% of caregivers incorrectly reported receiving VAS when no campaign had actually occurred. False-positive reporting was more likely when oral polio vaccine (OPV) was distributed during the reporting period (20.6% vs 5.4%; P < .001). Showing a photo of OPV during the interview reduced the odds ratio (OR) of false-positive reports (OR = 0.7 [0.6-0.8]). CONCLUSIONS: The PEC surveys should include children outside the target age to assess targeting efficiency, and pictures of both VAS and oral vaccines distributed during the same period should be shown during interviews to enhance reporting accuracy.

From the Cover: Sperm Molecular Biomarkers Are Sensitive Indicators of Testicular Injury following Subchronic Model Toxicant Exposure.

Traditional testis histopathology endpoints remain the gold standard for evaluating testicular insult and injury in a non-clinical setting, but are invasive and unfeasible for monitoring these effects clinically in humans. Assessing testicular injury in humans relies on semen and serum hormone analyses, both of which are insensitive and poor indicators of effect. Therefore, we hypothesized that sperm messenger RNA (mRNA) transcripts and DNA methylation marks can be used as translatable and sensitive indicators or testicular injury. Dose-response studies using adult male Fischer 344 rats subchronically exposed to model Sertoli cell toxicants (0.14, 0.21, and 0.33% 2,5-hexanedione, and 30, 50, and 70 mg/kg/day carbendazim), and a model germ cell toxicant (1.4, 3.4, and 5.1 mg/kg/day cyclophosphamide) for 3 months were evaluated for testicular injury by traditional histopathological endpoints, changes in sperm mRNA transcript levels using custom PCR arrays, and alterations in sperm DNA methylation via reduced representation bisulfite sequencing. Testis histopathological evaluation and PCR array analysis of the sperm transcriptome identified dose-dependent changes elicited by toxicant exposure (P < 0.05). Global sperm DNA methylation analysis of subchronic 0.33% 2,5-hexandione and 5.1 mg/kg/day cyclophosphamide exposure using a Monte Carlo approach did not identify differentially methylated regions (methylation difference > 10% and q < 0.05) with robust signatures. Overall, these results suggest that sperm mRNA transcripts are sensitive indicators of low dose toxicant-induced testicular injury in the rat, while sperm DNA methylation changes are not. Additionally, the Monte Carlo analysis is a powerful approach that can be used to assess the robustness of signals resulting from -omic studies.

Estradiol Exposure Differentially Alters Monolayer versus Microtissue MCF-7 Human Breast Carcinoma Cultures.

The development of three-dimensional (3D) cultures is increasing, as they are able to provide the utility of in vitro models and the strength of testing in physiologically relevant systems. When cultured in a scaffold-free agarose hydrogel system, MCF-7 human breast carcinoma cells organize and develop into microtissues that contain a luminal space, in stark contrast to the flat morphology of MCF-7 two-dimensional (2D) monolayer cultures. Following exposure to 1nM E2, expression of typical estrogen-responsive genes, including progesterone receptor (PGR), PDZ containing domain 1 (PDZK1) and amphiregulin (AREG) is increased in both 2D and 3D cultures. When examining expression of other genes, particularly those involved in cell adhesion, there were large changes in 3D MCF-7 microtissues, with little to no change observed in the MCF-7 monolayer cultures. Together, these results indicate that while the initial estrogen-regulated transcriptional targets respond similarly in 2D and 3D cultures, there are large differences in activation of other pathways related to cell-cell interactions.

Morphologic effects of estrogen stimulation on 3D MCF-7 microtissues.

In the development of human cell-based assays, 3-dimensional (3D) cell culture models are intriguing as they are able to bridge the gap between animal models and traditional two-dimensional (2D) cell culture. Previous work has demonstrated that MCF-7 human breast carcinoma cells cultured in a 3D scaffold-free culture system self-assemble and develop into differentiated microtissues that possess a luminal space. Exposure to estradiol for 7 days decreased lumen formation in MCF-7 microtissues, altered microtissue morphology and altered expression of genes involved in estrogen signaling, cell adhesion and cell cycle regulation. Exposure to receptor-specific agonists for estrogen receptor alpha, estrogen receptor beta and g-protein coupled estrogen receptor resulted in unique, receptor-specific phenotypes and gene expression signatures. The use of a differentiated scaffold-free 3D culture system offers a unique opportunity to study the phenotypic and molecular changes associated with exposure to estrogenic compounds.